The Next Baccarat Rouge 540

is... (PART 1)

I’m often asked for my predictions surrounding the ‘next Santal’ or the ‘next Baccarat.’ The short answer is that if there were one sure-cut formula, everyone would be using it.

This is why the same perfumers (and brands) who create blockbusters have also created perfumes you’ve never even heard of (and never will). Simply put, not everything can be a hit. And the people who create (and fail to create) said hits are often just as shocked as you or I.

Think about it: we’re in a market that sees upwards of 3000+ perfume launches each year. It’s a coup in itself that any singular perfume can reach #1 status. Like, how? How is it that my NYC apartment hallway smells the same as yours in Toronto, or in Shanghai, or in Bucharest? [Baccarat Rouge 540.] And WHY?

And can we learn from past and present mega-blockbusters to predict who might be next in line?

My thoughts ahead.

for some background:

I’ve smelled thousands of perfumes and have spent hundreds of hours interviewing fragrance luminaries — including some of the ones responsible for the hits above. I’ve chatted with tastemakers, fellow collectors, content creators, and industry visionaries, including the legendary fragrance historian & taxonomist Michael Edwards. I’ve predicted many trends, and a few brands have even reached out to tell me that Perfume Room episodes have inspired fragrances.

I share this with you not only to BRAG!!! establish a lil credibility, but to say that my hypothesis (though only hypothesis) is one steeped in research, time, analysis, listening, questioning, and asking.

So, here’s what I’ve deduced.

If your sole goal is to make a hit, quit while you’re ahead. It won’t be one.

You’ll get bogged down by market research, trend analysis, *white space,* focus groups, and social listening. Every cult-status fragrance felt controversial, or at the least daring, at its launch. This is because the ‘next thing’ is never something people see coming or ask for. It’s always something consumers don’t know they want (until they do, and now they can’t imagine life any other way).

If you create with passion, conviction and talent(!), and then refine your fragrance until it checks the boxes of THESE FOUR FACTORS BELOW (psst: this is my hypothesis part), you just might have the next Baccarat on your hands—in success, not smell (pleaseee not another smell).

THESE ARE THE FOUR TRAITS OF EVERY CULTURE-DEFINING FRAGRANCE (based on my observation):